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KG_Cloghaun
08-15-2008, 10:01 AM
*Interesting quotes from John McCain regarding the region


Should We Fight for South Ossetia?


by Patrick J. Buchanan

In an echo of Warren Harding's "A Return to Normalcy" speech of 1920, George Bush last week declared, "Normalcy is returning back to Iraq."

The term seemed a mite ironic. For, as Bush spoke, Iraqis were dying in the hundreds in the bloodiest fighting in months in Basra, the Shia militias of Moqtada al-Sadr were engaging Iraqi and U.S. troops in Sadr City, and mortar shells were dropping into the Green Zone.

One begins to understand why Gen. Petraeus wants a "pause" in the pullout of U.S. forces, and why Bush agrees. This will leave more U.S. troops in Iraq on Inauguration Day 2009 than on Election Day 2006, when the country voted the Democrats into power to bring a swift end to the war.

A day before Bush went to the U.S. Air Force Museum in Dayton, Ohio, to speak of normalcy returning to Iraq, he was led down into "the Tank," a secure room at the Pentagon, to be briefed on the crisis facing the U.S. Army and Marine Corps because of the constant redeployments to Afghanistan and Iraq.

As the Associated Press' Robert Burns reported, the Joint Chiefs "laid out their concerns about the health of the U.S. force." First among them is "that U.S. forces are being worn thin, compromising the Pentagon's ability to handle crises elsewhere in the world. … The U.S. has about 31,000 troops in Afghanistan and 156,000 in Iraq."

"Five plus years in Iraq," the generals and admirals told Bush, "could create severe, long-term problems, particularly for the Army and Marine Corps."

In short, the two long wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are wearing down U.S. ground forces of fewer than 700,000, one in every six of them women, to such an extent U.S. commanders called Bush and Dick Cheney to a secret meeting to awaken them to the strategic and morale crisis.

This is serious business. With the Taliban revived and the violence in Iraq rising toward pre-surge levels, the Joint Chiefs are telling the commander in chief that the U.S. Army and Marine Corps are worn out.

Crunch time is coming. And what is President Bush doing?

He is flying to Bucharest, Romania, to persuade Europe to bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO, which means a U.S. commitment to treat any Russian attack on Kiev or Tbilisi like an attack on Kansas or Texas.

Article V of the NATO treaty declares that "an armed attack against one or more [allies] shall be considered an attack against them all." Added language makes clear that the commitment to assist an ally is not unconditional. Rather, each signatory will assist the ally under attack with "such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force."

Yet, it was understood during the Cold War that if a NATO ally like Norway, West Germany, or Turkey, which bordered on the Soviet Union or Warsaw Pact, were attacked, America would come to its defense.

Can any sane man believe the United States should go to war with a nuclear-armed Russia over Stalin's birthplace, Georgia?

Two provinces of Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, have seceded, with the backing of Russia. And there are 10 million Russian-speaking Ukrainians in the east of that country, and Moscow and Kiev are at odds over which is sovereign on the Crimean Peninsula.

To bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would put America in the middle of these quarrels. We could be dragged into a confrontation with Russia over Abkhazia, or South Ossetia, or who owns Sebastopol. To bring these ex-republics of the Soviet Union into NATO would be an affront to Moscow not unlike 19th century Britain bringing the Confederate state of South Carolina under the protection of the British Empire.

How would Lincoln's Union have reacted to that?

With a weary army and no NATO ally willing to fight beside us, how could we defend Georgia if Tbilisi, once in NATO, defied Moscow and invaded Abkhazia and South Ossetia – and Russia bombed the Georgian army and capital? Would we declare war? Would we send the 82nd Airborne into the Pankisi Gorge?

Fortunately, Germany is prepared to veto any Bush attempt to put Ukraine or Georgia on a fast track into NATO. But President Bush is no longer the problem. John McCain is.

As Anatol Lieven writes in the Financial Times, McCain supports a restoration of Georgian rule over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine. He wants to throw Russia out of the G-8 – and talks flippantly of bombing Iran.

Says McCain, "I would institute a policy called 'rogue-state rollback.' I would arm, train, equip, both from without and from within, forces that would eventually overthrow the governments and install free and democratically elected governments."

Wonderful. A Second Crusade for Global Democracy. But with the Joint Chiefs warning of a war-weary Army and Marine Corps, who will fight all the new wars the neocons and their new champion have in store for us?

source:
http://www.antiwar.com/pat/?articleid=12612

KG_Kharkov
08-15-2008, 10:05 AM
I amazingly agree with Pat B. on this. Admitting these two countries is potentially disastrous for NATO and the U.S.

Admitting Poland is one thing, admitting two relatively unstable former Soviet republics is quite another.

KG_AGCent
08-15-2008, 11:09 AM
To bring Ukraine and Georgia into NATO would put America in the middle of these quarrels. We could be dragged into a confrontation with Russia over Abkhazia, or South Ossetia, or who owns Sebastopol. To bring these ex-republics of the Soviet Union into NATO would be an affront to Moscow not unlike 19th century Britain bringing the Confederate state of South Carolina under the protection of the British Empire.

How would Lincoln's Union have reacted to that?

While I believe the best way to contain the resurgence of the high evil of communism which we see in Russia is containment within the NATO framework, without an "ally" willing to share some of the burden, on a purely "scales of justice" sense, I can see no compelling reason to even remain a member state of NATO much less send troops in to defend another member state.

Frankly, if the British Empire had had the requisite moral fortitude and cultural empathy for the CSA and seen to it to offer aid and protection, so much the better. SCOTUS, having found NO ILLEGALITY in the Constitution regarding secession, albeit after the fact, leaves it clear that the methods used by Lincoln were immoral, violent and completely against the under-pinning principle of self-determination laid out in the Declaration of Independence and ensconced in the Constitution.

Ambiguous self-interest and threatened revenue prevented any foreign power from coming to the aid of the CSA in spite of the rightness of it's cause. I see the same scenario being played out right before our eyes. Fledgeling democracies freshly freed from 80 years of repression and tyranny are being forced at gun point back into the Russian hegemony. I see an eerie resemblance between Putin's ride through Georgia and Sherman's ride through Georgia.

Miserable and weak. That is what the West has become. No longer deserving of the blessing showered down on it.

KG_Soldier
08-15-2008, 01:57 PM
The Georgians started this thing; the Russians are punishing them for it. We supported independence for the Ukraine, Latvia, Georgia, ect. in '91. If South Ossetia wants to return to the rule of the Russians now, how can we be against self-determination? The Russians aren't trying to re-take Georgia. Even if they were, there's nothing we could do about it short of starting WW III.

Russia's power is on the rise because they are fast becoming the leading producer of oil and natural gas in the world. Europe can't do anything because they depend on Russian energy. If America wants to remain the world's leading superpower, we must start producing our own oil and gas. As long as we remain dependent on foreign oil, our standing in the world will continue to decline.

While we seek alternative forms of energy, we must drill here, drill now.

Our armed forces' "fatigue" has nothing to do with our inability to force the Russians to withdraw from Georgia. Russia has over 600,000 troops and they are right next door to Georgia. Even if we hadn't been fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan for the last 5 years, there's no way we could take on the Russians in Georgia, at least not without nukes.

The bigger question is whether or not Obama will play like he's Lincoln and use force to make Texas stay in the Union after he wins the presidency.

KG_Jag
08-15-2008, 02:35 PM
This looks a bit too much like 1939 for my taste.

I'm not sure about Mark's self determination argument in light of the habit of the Soviets of moving ethnic Russians into newly acquired territories such as the Baltic Republics. However, I know little about the ethnic history in this area.

All of this leads me to two immediate conclusions with regard to the U.S. in the short term.

First and as Mark said--we must drill our own oil and drill it big, along with pursing oil shale, conservation, and alternative techs. Still--for most of the rest of my life time, drilling and oil shale are the most important.

Second--we cannot have an inexperienced, weak and pacifist leaning individual as our next President, especially one who approves or more drilling in his mouth than on our soil and within our territory.

KG_Cloghaun
08-15-2008, 09:51 PM
I understand & agree with Mark & Bill's points on becoming self-energy efficient if we are to remain a superpower but that is only part of the equation with regard to Russia.

I know it's hard to do, but think back to a time before the attacks of Sept.11th & the war on terror. Communism & the spread of it's Godless totalitarian aim is the true evil in the world & we as a nation must due everything in our power to guard against it.

Bill, you're an old fart, you know better than us all the consequenses of being weak with Russia.

No one will deny our buddies in Nato have done little to "carry the weight" over the years, but like it or not we need them. If for nothing else, a battlefield. I'm sure you'll all agree we'd much rather fight the Russkies across France, Germany & wherever else first instead of repelling a naval landing at Galveston. (is if...) Britain & Canada will always stand & fight when push comes to shove & so will the Australians so who needs anyone else.

And with respect, Mark, your continued defeatist attitude really baffles me. We couldn't beat the Russians during WW2 & we can't now?

We've had a two ocean navy for over 60 years. 11 aircraft carrier battle groups (and that's a peacetime fleet, mind you.) No one can touch our airforce (see F-22 Raptor & the Navy's F/A-18 Super Hornet). Those 2 branches of our military alone pretty much garuantee success in any war with anyone. And unless I'm mistaken, I can't remember the last time the U.S. Marine Corps or U.S. Army lost a war. But this is a seperate issue.

If South Ossetia wants to return to the rule of the Russians now, how can we be against self-determination? The Russians aren't trying to re-take Georgia.

S.O. wants independence. It doesn't want to rejoin Russia. Until it gets it's act together & has a proper fair vote with ethnic Georgian representation & not just S.O. voters, they're independence will never be recognized. In the meantime, they (S.O.) aren't helping their cause by the widespread violence & crime which runs rampent through their area & hurts Georgia's economy & people- all under the watchful eye of so-called Russian "peace keepers" who were supposed to be there stopping this sort of criminal activity. They wouldn't act, so Georgia did. Enough was enough.

If I'm an outsider looking in and know Russia's corrupt political track record since 91' & their way of doing things, who am I going to believe? Give me a break.

The bottom line is that I finally saluted George Bush when just yesterday he told Russia to quote, "get their asses out of Georgia, pronto!"

KG_Soldier
08-15-2008, 10:44 PM
Frank, I'm pretty sure the Russians monitor the U.S. press, and the fact that our nation is up in arms over the death of 4,000 soldiers in a 5 year war probably has the Russians feeling pretty confident we won't go to war with them and lose 10,000 or 15,000 soldiers a year.

I mean... losing 4,000 soldiers in Iraq isn't a good thing. But our horror at it shows that we aren't like a lot of the world, losing 10 or 20 thousand soldiers won't cause a revolution in Russia. It would here. That's why we have nukes. The U.S. will never fight another land war against a major power like Russia or China. We don't have the resolve to withstand those kind of losses; the Russians and Chinese do. All we can do is threaten them with economic sanctions or nukes.

I'm sorry, but our bark no longer has much bite.

KG_Soldier
08-15-2008, 10:55 PM
You're right, Frank. I don't think we could have beaten the Russians after WWII without nukes, and I don't think we could beat the Russians in Georgia today. It's connected to them for Christ's sake.

Are we going to send in the Army and Marines to fight in Georgia? No freakin way. We'd get slaughtered. Do you think the Russians would send their army to fight in Cuba if we invaded it? There's no way we could keep our troops supplied.

And even though I agree that no one can touch our Air Force, in Georgia, the Russians would put up an incredible anti-aircraft shield. They do make pretty good sams and such. The attrition would wipe us out in a month or two.

Our armed forces are the best in the world, but not so much better that we could take on the Russians in their backyard without suffering TREMENDOUS casualties-- casualties that make Iraq look like a training exercise.

KG_Cloghaun
08-16-2008, 12:13 AM
I have over 200 years of U.S. military history that says we would probably kick Russia's ass - today. Your right though, it would be at a terrible, terrible cost. But what is the cost of doing nothing? Ask Chamberlain. Ask Churchill. This isn't rhetoric, its reality.

Rob hit the nail on the head in his post, it's all about the money. It would probably take nothing short of a nuclear explosion going off in our own back yard to find the moral consciousness in our country save the minority sprinkled around farmlands & borded up factory towns to fight a war on that scale. It's fine & well to pop some corn, turn on CNN & watch our boys plow through Iraq.

So to Hell with it, let's just let Russia reclaim all it's former sattelites, including the Eastern bloc. What's Poland ever done for anyone anyways?

In the meantime I'm going to write my congressman & tell him that I feel that all these illegal immigrants flooding in from the South represent a "clear & present danger" to our nation, & we should invade Mexico & annex their nation immediately. Then we can start taxing all that cheap labor. Do you think anyone would mind? Maybe Spain would declare war on us?

-see Monroe Doctrine.